Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 2.105499 2.216967 2.336606 2.475592 2.633976 2.810577 3.024941
2025-06-08 1.967990 2.108568 2.265612 2.456696 2.686835 2.960704 3.320852
2025-06-15 1.895242 2.057052 2.243379 2.478551 2.775119 3.148947 3.679662
2025-06-22 1.789583 1.956279 2.151515 2.403184 2.729395 3.155647 3.792435
2025-06-29 1.737291 1.913813 2.124421 2.402377 2.774211 3.281397 4.089462
2025-07-06 1.669560 1.848028 2.063443 2.352053 2.746206 3.299728 4.223173
2025-07-13 1.647054 1.835794 2.067499 2.384959 2.832400 3.490356 4.676091
2025-07-20 1.639598 1.841152 2.093183 2.447196 2.964562 3.768754 5.372437
2025-07-27 1.609635 1.816170 2.077526 2.450729 3.009747 3.913682 5.863365
2025-08-03 1.582338 1.793160 2.062874 2.453955 3.053670 4.062002 6.426717
2025-08-10 1.533745 1.740729 2.006545 2.394066 2.993345 4.015504 6.491860
2025-08-17 1.505728 1.714145 1.983873 2.381450 3.007025 4.106702 6.969131
2025-08-24 1.476236 1.685834 1.959255 2.366925 3.020277 4.207222 7.568867
2025-08-31 1.448031 1.658187 1.934273 2.350165 3.027926 4.297794 8.216344
2025-09-07 1.434176 1.648948 1.934028 2.370076 3.098929 4.532462 9.677613
2025-09-14 1.392240 1.600862 1.877836 2.301618 3.010340 4.405707 9.431135
2025-09-21 1.374417 1.584739 1.865972 2.300887 3.041504 4.553237 10.747657
2025-09-28 1.343189 1.549698 1.826277 2.255033 2.988207 4.497467 10.887881
2025-10-05 1.337274 1.548766 1.834837 2.285028 3.075231 4.793456 14.064402
2025-10-12 1.339495 1.558867 1.859380 2.341638 3.218240 5.278843 23.556263
2025-10-19 1.326023 1.546892 1.851372 2.344846 3.258222 5.498941 36.550381
2025-10-26 1.313115 1.535330 1.843516 2.347776 3.297818 5.732269 91.202770
2025-11-02 1.284799 1.501707 1.802260 2.293322 3.216002 5.564427 71.579121